Save GC Sarts

In order to analyze the measures required to combat global warming is needed to assess the evolution of climate in the immediate future and more distant, and the effect of proposed measures. For this purpose different climate models were developed, with which forecasts are obtained using powerful computers. These initial models only simulated temperature changes and movement of air masses of ocean water and atmospheric phenomena treated by means of CFD. Later models were developed, including the effect of gases (including carbon cycle and anthropogenic effects), the effect of aerosols, the clouds, the use of soil, the oceans. These models are accepted by the scientific community and can simulate climate variations including seasonal, El Niño phenomenon, the change in water level in the North Atlantic, or even temperature evolution throughout the twentieth century.

Projections were developed by CCSR, Nies, CCCma, CSIRO, Hadley Centre, GFDL, MPIM and A2 SRES scenarios based NCAR emissions, assuming that no action be taken to reduce emissions.

Geographical distribution warming in the twenty-first century, based on HadCM3 climate model.

Next on temperature distribution map was prepared using the HadCM3 model (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) and the current scenario assumes economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In the figure, the average global warming corresponds to approx. 3.0 ° C.

Of course, models are still a degree of uncertainty, due mostly modeling phenomena that occur on a small scale, such as modeling clouds, storm cells and local air traffic due to local relief. In addition, models are limited possibilities of computing capacity of computers today. However, the IPCC considers climate models as tools to obtain relevant predictions on Climate Change. These models estimate that the global climate will warm by 1.1 to 6.4 ° C during the twenty-first century. Estimates vary because evolution cannot be predicted emissions causing the greenhouse effect.